The Missing Middle with Stephanie Bashir, Nexa Advisory

Australia’s clean energy transition has made strong gains in households and large industry, but a vast opportunity remains largely untouched. 

According to a new report from Nexa Advisory, commercial and mid-scale businesses are the “missing middle” of the energy system. Unlocking their potential could transform both the speed and the cost of the transition. 

We spoke with Stephanie Bashir, CEO of Nexa Advisory, about the findings of the report and what it will take to turn thousands of empty rooftops into one of Australia’s most valuable renewable resources. 

The untapped opportunity 

Bashir said commercial and industrial businesses have enormous potential to host solar and batteries but are consistently overlooked by policy. “The smelters and big industrials already have demand response arrangements,” she said. “Households and small businesses now benefit from the Cheaper Home Batteries scheme. But the missing middle, business parks, warehouses and commercial centres, is stuck in limbo.”

"There is more than 28 GW of rooftop solar potential across the commercial sector, compared with just 5 GW installed today." 

- Untapped Potential of Commercial & Industrial Energy Resources in the NEM, Nexa Advisory, Sept 2025

Why uptake is so slow 

Bashir described the barriers as structural rather than technological. She said one of the biggest hurdles is convincing businesses to participate, followed by the tenant versus owner-occupier issue, which is especially challenging in commercial property.  

Even once a business is ready, the connection process is so expensive, slow and inconsistent that it can make projects commercially unviable. 

“There’s virtually nothing targeted at the commercial middle,” she said. “They’re too small for the big-end-of-town incentives, too large for the household programs. That policy gap leaves a huge amount of potential sitting idle.” 

This research matches what we see in commercial solar, though the priorities play out differently. Businesses are usually ready to go; the real roadblocks are reluctant landlords, misinformation, confusion about the business case, access to funding, and -worst of all - the grid connection process. And when it comes to funding options like PPAs, the job of raising awareness falls to companies like Smart, because even government-backed groups such as BRC-A stick to the big end of town and leave smaller commercial projects out of the picture.

A battleground with networks 

Bashir was clear about the role of distribution networks in slowing progress. “We’re seeing networks try to compete in solar and batteries instead of enabling access. That’s a fundamental conflict. They’re regulated monopolies, but they want to own batteries on their regulated asset base and introduce their own tariffs. It’s anti-competitive, and it slows everyone else down.” 

She said networks should be facilitating access to the grid rather than acting as blockers. 

The reform agenda 

The Nexa report calls for reforms including: 

• Dedicated tenders within the Capacity Investment Scheme for projects as small as 1 MW.
• Expanded CEFC and ARENA support for mid-scale installations, including batteries and fleet charging.
• Tariff reform to reward flexibility and exports.
• Enforcement of ring-fencing rules so networks cannot compete directly.
• Streamlined connection processes with standardised rules, penalties for delays and flexible options. 

“The prize is enormous,” Bashir said. “Unlocking C&I resources could avoid $11 billion in network costs by 2040 while giving businesses lower bills and governments the reliability they need. It’s a win-win-win.” 

For Bashir, the opportunity is also about building support for the broader transition. “We’ve lost more than a decade in the transition,” she said. “If businesses can cut bills and participate in solar-share programs, it builds the social licence for the broader changes we need. Coal is at end-of-life, and we do not have the luxury of time anymore.” 

The road ahead

Nexa is pushing state and federal governments to act, with New South Wales flagged as the lowest-hanging fruit. “There’s 18 GW of potential sitting on NSW commercial rooftops right now,” Bashir said. “If we can unlock even a portion of that, it changes the trajectory of the energy transition.” 

Her message is simple: Australia cannot keep ignoring the missing middle. With the right policy and regulatory settings, commercial rooftops could become one of the fastest, cheapest and most socially acceptable sources of new renewable energy. 

“We’re handing government a solution on a silver plate,” Bashir said. “The only question is whether they will take it.”